Utilizing human crash information, Waymo estimated that human drivers on the identical roads would get into 78 crashes critical sufficient to set off an airbag. By comparability, Waymo’s driverless autos solely received into 13 airbag crashes. That represents an 83 % discount in airbag crashes relative to typical human drivers.
That is barely worse than final September, when Waymo estimated an 84 % discount in airbag crashes over Waymo’s first 21 million miles.
Over the identical 44 million miles, Waymo estimates that human drivers would get into 190 crashes critical sufficient to trigger an harm. As a substitute, Waymo solely received in 36 injury-causing crashes throughout San Francisco or Phoenix. That’s an 81 % discount in injury-causing crashes.
It is a important enchancment over final September, when Waymo estimated its automobiles had 73 % fewer injury-causing crashes over its first 21 million driverless miles.
The above evaluation counts all crashes, whether or not or not Waymo’s expertise was at fault. Issues look even higher for Waymo if we concentrate on crashes the place Waymo was decided to be answerable for a crash.
To evaluate this, Waymo co-authored a study in December with the insurance coverage large Swiss Re. It targeted on crashes that led to profitable insurance coverage claims in opposition to Waymo. This information appears significantly credible as a result of third events, not Waymo, determine when a crash is critical sufficient to file an insurance coverage declare. And claims adjusters, not Waymo, determine whether or not to carry Waymo answerable for a crash.
However one draw back is that it takes just a few months for insurance coverage claims to be filed. So the December report targeted on crashes that occurred by way of July 2024.
Waymo had accomplished 25 million driverless miles by July 2024. And by the tip of November 2024, Waymo had confronted solely two doubtlessly profitable claims for bodily harm. Each claims are pending, which suggests they might nonetheless be resolved in Waymo’s favor.
Considered one of them was this crash that I described at the start of my September article about Waymo’s security report: