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New study shows why simulated reasoning AI models don’t yet live up to their billing

A screenshot of the 2025 USAMO Problem #1 and a solution, shown on the AoPSOnline website.
A screenshot of the 2025 USAMO Drawback #1 and an answer, proven on the AoPSOnline web site.


Credit score:

AoPSOnline


The US Math Olympiad (USAMO) serves as a qualifier for the Worldwide Math Olympiad and presents a a lot larger bar than assessments just like the American Invitational Mathematics Examination (AIME). Whereas AIME issues are tough, they require integer solutions. USAMO calls for contestants write out full mathematical proofs, scored for correctness, completeness, and readability over 9 hours and two days.

The researchers evaluated a number of AI reasoning fashions on the six issues from the 2025 USAMO shortly after their launch, minimizing any probability the issues had been a part of the fashions’ coaching information. These fashions included Qwen’s QwQ-32B, DeepSeek R1, Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking (Experimental) and Gemini 2.5 Pro, OpenAI’s o1-pro and o3-mini-high, Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 Sonnet with Extended Thinking, and xAI’s Grok 3.

An April 25, 2025 screenshot of the researchers' MathArena website showing accuracy scores for SR models on each problem in the USAMO.
An April 25, 2025, screenshot of the researchers’ MathArena web site displaying accuracy scores for SR fashions on every drawback within the USAMO.


Credit score:

MathArena


Whereas one mannequin, Google’s Gemini 2.5 Professional, achieved a better common rating of 10.1 out of 42 factors (~24 p.c), the outcomes in any other case confirmed a large efficiency drop in comparison with AIME-level benchmarks. The opposite evaluated fashions lagged significantly additional behind: DeepSeek R1 and Grok 3 averaged 2.0 factors every, Google’s Flash-Considering scored 1.8, Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 managed 1.5, whereas Qwen’s QwQ and OpenAI’s o1-pro each averaged 1.2 factors. OpenAI’s o3-mini had the bottom common rating at simply 0.9 factors (~2.1 p.c). Out of practically 200 generated options throughout all examined fashions and runs, not a single one acquired an ideal rating for any drawback.

Whereas OpenAI’s newly launched 03 and o4-mini-high weren’t examined for this examine, benchmarks on the researchers’ MathArena web site present o3-high scoring 21.73 p.c total and o4-mini-high scoring 19.05 p.c total on USAMO. Nevertheless, these outcomes are probably contaminated as a result of they had been measured after the competition passed off, which means that the newer OpenAI fashions might probably have included the options within the coaching information.

How the fashions failed

Within the paper, the researchers recognized a number of key recurring failure patterns. The AI outputs contained logical gaps the place mathematical justification was missing, included arguments based mostly on unproven assumptions, and continued producing incorrect approaches regardless of producing contradictory outcomes.

A particular instance concerned USAMO 2025 Problem 5. This drawback requested fashions to search out all optimistic entire numbers “okay,” such {that a} particular calculation involving sums of binomial coefficients raised to the facility of “okay” would all the time lead to an integer, irrespective of which optimistic integer “n” was used. On this drawback, Qwen’s QwQ mannequin made a notable error: It incorrectly excluded non-integer prospects at a stage the place the issue assertion allowed them. This error led the mannequin to an incorrect ultimate reply regardless of having appropriately recognized the required situations earlier in its reasoning course of.

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New study shows why simulated reasoning AI models don’t yet live up to their billing

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