“International locations together with Brazil, India, Israel, and the UAE are eminently able to ramping up investments geared toward securing new methods to entry elevated computing capability,” the Brookings Institute mentioned. “Stopping firms in middle-tier international locations from counting on the US to produce computing chips is a surefire approach to push them into constructing non-US alliances that embrace stronger know-how ties with China.”

The rule may additionally complicate the worldwide AI panorama in methods the US could not anticipate, the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS), a bipartisan, nonprofit coverage analysis group, forecast final week. It may “breed resentment, not cooperation” in tier-two international locations that can seemingly “bristle at the truth that their AI ambitions rely upon Washington’s goodwill and that they’re being intentionally stored a era behind the frontier,” CSIS wrote. And it may drive extra open supply AI like DeepSeek to be key to improvement in tier-two nations, maybe additional endangering US international management in AI, CSIS advised.

“Paradoxically, the AI Diffusion Framework, meant to lock in American benefit, could as a substitute midwife the very final result it sought to stop—an alternate AI stack and elevated open-source improvement the place China, as its most prolific contributor, emerges because the de facto chief,” CSIS reported.

China wooing international locations focused by rule, Microsoft says

However in response to Smith, some elements of the rule must be preserved, like datacenter restrictions, together with “qualitative provisions” that “be sure that AI know-how elements are deployed in licensed, safe, and trusted datacenters.” That a part of the rule, Smith advised, “helps cut back the danger of chip diversion to China.”

And different elements of the rule may be strengthened, Smith wrote, resembling guaranteeing the Commerce Division has assets to implement it and “expedite approvals” for any international locations within the center tier who could attraction to both transfer into the highest tier or restrict tier-two restrictions.